21/22 Analysis and lessons identified
After two top 100k finishes in 18/19 and 19/20 I have since had two ultimately frustrating seasons finishing 204k and 161k respectively. So its time to take a look at my approach to playing the game and try to find my way back to the top 100k and ultimately to an ever elusive top 10k finish.
To help me look for areas of improvement I have looked back over the last season using the very useful transfer history tool at https://leagueracefpl.info/ curtesy of u/Plastonick at r/FantasyPL on Reddit.
Looking at the beginning of my season I tried to take a very cautious and considered approach with a fairly template team with hopes of putting last seasons 200k finish behind me.
Taking 89 points on the open GW felt like a successful start with a overall rank of just over 1.2m. I even managed to resist temptation and roll that first free transfer. But going into GW5 I was sat at around 1m OR having made up just 200k over the last 3 weeks so decided to wildcard. This catapulted me up the rankings halving my OR to around 500k. It was at this point I felt I was on for a good season. This didn't last, by GW8 my rank was back up to 1m and as you can see from my transfer history I let this get to me and started making bad decisions such as selling Gallagher despite him being in good form and looking great on the eye test. It took me to GW11 to regain a top 500k rank and I pretty much spent the rest of the season flittering between 500k and 200k before ultimately ending up at 161k OR.
So what went wrong?
My Chip strategy by and large payed off with Salah TC in GW26. My first FH in GW30 landed me a 600K GW rank and my second one on GW38 propelled me to my highest OR of the season.
My Captain picks where by and large strong amassing me 700 points with 26/38 successful picks.
So all that is left is my picks and the timings of my transfers. My goalkeeper picks where particularly poor with Guaita getting me the most points out of all 9 keepers I fielded with a sorry 38 points. I also went very differential once I felt my OR was stagnating which meant my GW often ended in either big red or big green arrows. This seems an obvious place to start as its an easy issue to address. So what will I do differently for 22/23?
22/23 Strategy
Disclaimer: I am not an expert, far from it in fact i am a very average FPL manager with a pretty average history. This strategy should be read as an outline to my approach to next season. none of these are set in stone and adapting as the season changes is key in my experience to having a successful season. Finally there is no single right way to succeed in FPL and I am always keen to hear of new ideas. This is simply the way I plan to try and succeed next season
GW1 squad structure
Like last season I plan to start with fairly template Squad with just one to two differential picks. This will serve two purposes it should keep my team up with the pack should the template do well this season and whilst it wont give me an amazing start it will also act as a safeguard to prevent a terrible start. Additionally I will be looking to pick no more than two premiums. it can be tempting to load up on three or maybe even four at the expense of your bench and other players but in my experience this rarely pays off and a balanced squad performs better.
Price points are also key, I try to start the season with all the key price points in each position. The gold stamp is to be able to reach any player in no more than two transfers.
An area I particularly struggled with last season was goalkeepers. I have traditionally gone with who I think will be the best budget keeper for GW1 and then a 4.0m bench keeper to free up funds elsewhere. I then re-assess this when playing my first wildcard. My picks last season did not pay off which lead me to use free transfers on goalkeepers which is something I dont tend to do. I intend to play this same goalkeeper strategy for the coming season with hopefully no free transfers wasted chopping and changing them. Goalkeeper analysis article to follow in order to try and build a short list of possible keepers that are keepers.
Transfer policy
I have always been one to make my transfers as late as possible usually around 15 mins before deadline to ensure I have as up to date information as close to the deadline as I dare. I also make it a habit to check the press conferences before making my transfers to ensure there is no last minute injury news.
I will possibly make exceptions to that rule if I am about to be priced out of a player. r/FantasyPL is great for tracking the price rise and fall predictions with a daily post linking the predictor sites. Worth keeping an eye on these if you don't have any change left after your planned transfer. If you do find yourself in the situation where you are about to be priced out of your planned transfers there are a couple of things to consider.
- Are there any mid week games between now and the deadline? If not then the risk of an injury is reduced. Of course a training ground injury could still occur or an unannounced knock from the previous game week that doesn't come out until the pre game press conference.
- If you do end up with a player who picks up an unexpected injury can your team wear it? If you have a decent bench option who you are happy to start then is likely you can get away with an early transfer.
Who to sell and who to buy is a question managers ask themselves every week. Often it is easy to knee jerk in which ever player hauled the week before. It is easy to get caught up in FOMO or Fear Of Missing Out. Often it is easier to be blinded by the possibility of attacking returns no matter how small but often the greatest returns can be found by targeting a replacement for your weakest player. Not only does this leave you with an overall stronger squad it stands you in a better stead further down the line.
Finally plan for the long term, variance means all to often short term punts don't pay off. As a rule of thumb try and plan for 4 weeks or longer. Ideally bringing in players with a run of favourable fixtures.
As with most aspects of FPL remaining flexible and adapting to what is in front of you is key. As such these are more principles than laws.
Captain picks
It sounds simple but pick the obvious choice. There is a reason Salah spent most of the first half of last season as everyone's captain. Often you will hear just pick the player you think will score the most points as the best strategy. This sounds simple but its far safer to follow the crowd when a single player is highly captained. when there is no clear pick and the captain choices for the week are going to be spread then the risk is lower and its safer to take a risk and captain someone different. Should your pick fail the damage is limited due to np single highly owned captain and if it pays off it gives you a chance to make real gains as your captain pick is not as popular. patience is key in waiting for these opportunity's.
Chip strategy
This is simple, maximise chances by using Triple Captain and Bench Boost on double game weeks. Use Free Hit on a blank game week.
